The battery company was attacked by both sides, and the power lithium battery company was "swimming naked"?
Ar thaobh amháin, rith an fathach ceallraí litiam CATL an cruinniú IPO i 24 lá, ag socrú taifead nua do chruinniú IPO; ar an láimh eile, d'eisigh Jianruiwo Neng fógra laghdú scairshealbhóra arís, agus ag an am céanna thuar caillteanas de níos mó ná 300 milliún yuan sa chéad ráithe den bhliain seo. Ní mór a fhios agat gur tháinig Jianrui Wo Neng sa tríú háit i gcumas suiteáilte ceallraí cumhachta baile i 2017, sa dara háit ach amháin le CATL agus BYD, agus rinne sé brabús 254 milliún sa chéad ráithe den bhliain seo caite. Nuair a choigeartaíodh an bealach teicniúil agus tarraingíodh siar an polasaí fóirdheontais nua um fhuinneamh baile de réir a chéile, d'éirigh le hathshuíomh cuideachtaí ceallraí cumhachta a dhianú. Anuraidh, ní hamháin gur mhalartaigh CATL agus BYD suíocháin, ach tháinig laghdú freisin ar fheidhmíocht go leor fiontar beag agus meánmhéide.
Tá cuideachtaí ceallraí ionsaí ag an dá thaobh
Buffett once said that you don't know who's swimming naked until the tide goes out. The new energy vehicle industry, which was once in full swing, ushered in a major reshuffle after the subsidy ebb.
On the evening of April 9, Jian Rui Wo Neng, who was in crisis, said that the company's loss has increased significantly, mainly due to the decrease in orders from its wholly-owned subsidiary Shenzhen Waterma Battery Co., Ltd. Jianrui Wo Neng and Waterma said that the occurrence of the breakage incident and the impact of the 2017 national subsidy retreat on the market were misjudged, and the scale expansion was not controlled in time, resulting in untimely payment. This opened the tip of the iceberg.
The predecessor of Jianrui Weneng was Jianrui Fire. In 2016, it acquired 100 percent equity of Waterma and entered the field of lithium iron phosphate new energy vehicle power battery and automobile starting power supply. However, the new energy vehicle industry is generally highly dependent on subsidies. The decline in subsidies has led to a decline in the profits of battery companies. In 2017, BYD's net profit also fell by 19.51 percent year-on-year, and it is expected to drop by 75.24 percent -91.75 percent in the first quarter of this year.
Is é an ceallraí cumhachta croí-chomhpháirt na feithicle fuinnimh nua, agus is ionann an costas agus 30 faoin gcéad -50 faoin gcéad den fheithicil iomlán. Laghdaíonn an fóirdheontas, agus ní mór don fhiontar ceallraí cumhachta an brú laghdaithe praghais comhfhreagrach a iompar freisin. Ar thaobh amháin, tá custaiméirí ag cur brú ar laghduithe praghsanna ceallraí, agus ar an láimh eile, tá soláthraithe in aghaidh an tsrutha ag ardú praghsanna go fiáin. Is féidir staid na gcuideachtaí ceallraí a shamhlú. Fiú amháin i CATL, áit a raibh cadhnraí litiam ternary freagrach as beagnach leath dá ndíolachán i 2017, bhí corrlaigh brabúis chomhlán a chórais ceallraí cumhachta príomhtháirge ó 2015 go 2017 41.40 faoin gcéad, 44.84 faoin gcéad, agus 35.25 faoin gcéad, faoi seach, a thit go suntasach i 2017.
Today, these two factors still plague power battery manufacturers: First, the price of raw materials has skyrocketed. Among them, the most expensive cathode material, cobalt, currently reaches 600,000 yuan per ton, and is known as "cobalt grandma" in the industry. The second is the reduction of state subsidies. In 2018, the subsidy quota for new energy buses will be reduced by about 40 percent , which will be officially implemented on June 12 this year. In 2017, the installed capacity of batteries with an energy density of less than 105Wh/kg accounted for 50.7 percent . This part will not be subsidized this year, which will promote the accelerated reshuffle of the power battery industry. It is expected that new energy subsidies will be fully withdrawn in 2020, and competition with international giants without subsidies will be a major test for domestic power battery companies.
Athsholáthar pláta ceann ceallraí cumhachta
De réir na sonraí, ba iad na cúig dhíolachán ceallraí cumhachta domhanda is fearr i 2017 ná CATL, Panasonic, BYD, Waterma agus LG Chem, le díolacháin de 11.84GWh, 10GWh, 7.2GWh, 5.5GWh agus 4.5GWh faoi seach. Thar Lear, is é Panasonic an ceannaire i gcadhnraí cumhachta sa tSeapáin, agus is iad LG agus Samsung an dá chadhnraí cumhachta sa Chóiré Theas. Leis an méid ollmhór atá acu, baineann siad leas as a scála agus tá siad ar thús cadhnaíochta i dteicneolaíocht ceallraí agus uathoibriú.
In 2017, CATL's power battery shipments increased by 73 percent , surpassing Panasonic in one fell swoop and taking the world's first position in the industry. Judging from the installed capacity of power batteries, which can better reflect market share, CATL was 10.4GWh in 2017, and one company monopolized nearly 30 percent of the market. The company was valued at 130 billion when it was issued, and it is the first stock of power batteries that is well-deserved in terms of listing speed and valuation.
I 2016, tháinig BYD sa chéad áit sa tSín agus sa dara háit ar domhan le haghaidh cadhnraí cumhachta. Le teacht chun cinn tobann ré Ningde, tháinig laghdú ar a fheidhmíocht i 2017.
Mar sin féin, mar gheall ar an méadú tapa ar chumas táirgthe ceallraí cumhachta agus laghdú ar an mbeartas fóirdheontais le haghaidh feithiclí nua fuinnimh, laghdaíodh praghas an chórais ceallraí cumhachta i CATL go mór, ó 2.28 yuan/Wh in 2015 go 1.41 yuan/Wh i 2017, laghdú carnach suas le 38.26 faoin gcéad . Tháinig laghdú freisin ar an mbrabús glan tar éis nithe neamh-asbhainte a asbhaint i CATL ó 2.96 billiún yuan in 2016 go 2.47 billiún yuan in 2017.
Faoi láthair, is é an bealach teicniúil príomhshrutha de chadhnraí gluaisteán nua fuinnimh cadhnraí trínártha (is iad cadhnraí thrínártha príomhbhealach teicniúil CATL freisin), is é sin, cadhnraí litiam le nicil-manganáit litiam cóbalt nó nicil{{1} } cóbalt litiam aluminate mar ábhair chatóide, agus cóbalt mar ábhar catóide. Tá cobhsaitheoirí fíor-riachtanach. Tá dlús ardfhuinnimh ag litiam ternary agus féadann sé saol ceallraí níos faide a sholáthar. Faoi 2017, tá praghas cadhnraí litiam trínártha tite go dtí 1.4-1.5 yuan/Wh ar a laghad, rud atá go bunúsach mar an gcéanna le fosfáit iarainn litiam. Is cúis thábhachtach é ardú na gcadhnraí trínártha le ré Ningde chun BYD a scoitheadh.
It's getting harder for SMEs
When the leaders in the industry change their positions, other small and medium{{0}}sized companies in China's power battery industry also experience the industry's cold and warm - the largest of which, Waterma, had an installed capacity of only 2.3GWh in 2017. This company and Guoxuan Hi-Tech, which ranked fourth last year and is also a listed company, only have a gap of 0.4GWh in the installed capacity of power lithium batteries, which is not even a fraction of the capacity of power batteries under construction between the two parties-Waterma 2020 The planned annual production capacity is 20GWh, while Guoxuan Hi-Tech has a higher target of 30GWh. Guoxuan Hi-Tech, which is mainly engaged in new materials for iron-lithium power batteries, achieved a net profit of 920 million yuan attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2017, a year-on-year decrease of 10.73 percent .
Chengfei Integration, which is mainly engaged in the lithium battery business, achieved an operating income of 2 billion yuan in 2017, a year-on-year decrease of 9.04 percent ; the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was -77.3428 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 156.16 percent , while the company's net profit in 2016 was as high as 137 million yuan. This is Chengfei Integrated's first loss in ten years. Chengfei Integration mainly produces lithium iron phosphate batteries, and its main customers are new energy buses, which are more affected by policy decline than passenger cars.
Ró-acmhainn thromchúiseach na ceallraí cumhachta
Léiríonn na sonraí gurb é 36.27Gwh toilleadh suiteáilte na gcadhnraí cumhachta feithiclí fuinnimh nua i mo thír in 2017, méadú de thart ar 20 faoin gcéad bliain-ar-bhliain, a bhí i bhfad ón 50- 60GWh measta ag an tionscal ag tús 2017; agus tá athruithe móra tagtha ar bhealach teicniúil cadhnraí litiam. Tá sciar den mhargadh de chadhnraí cumhachta níos mó ná 44 faoin gcéad, méadú faoi dhó ó 2016. Is rud é seo freisin nach féidir le Jian Ruiwu a bheith ag súil leis.
Ar an láimh eile, bhí táirgeadh agus díolacháin feithiclí nua fuinnimh i mo thír anuraidh gar do 800,000 aonad, méadú 50 faoin gcéad i gcomparáid le 2016; shroich aschur feithiclí nua paisinéirí fuinnimh 478,000 aonad, méadú bliain ar-bliain de níos mó ná 200,000 aonad. Ar ndóigh, ní féidir le ráta fáis cumas suiteáilte ceallraí cumhachta coinneáil suas leis an ráta fáis ar tháirgeadh agus ar dhíolacháin feithiclí fuinnimh nua, toisc go bhfuil athrú tagtha ar struchtúr táirgthe agus díolacháin feithiclí nua fuinnimh, agus tá méadú tapa tagtha ar líon na ngluaisteán paisinéirí agus feithiclí speisialta. . Faoi threocht anuas an mhargaidh nua feithiclí paisinéirí fuinnimh, tá na feithiclí nua paisinéirí fuinnimh a leanann ar aghaidh ag déanamh dul chun cinn mór tar éis éirí mar chroílár fás feidhmíochta ceallraí cumhachta.
At the same time, the power battery production capacity has been seriously excessive. It is reported that in 2017, the production capacity of my country's entire power battery industry exceeded 200GWh, and the installed capacity is expected to reach 100GWh in 2020.
The prospectus of CATL also reflects this. In 2017, CATL's lithium-ion battery production capacity was 17.09GWh, output was 12.91GWh, and the capacity utilization rate was 75.54 percent ; while in 2015 and 2016, it was 96.92 percent and 92.37 percent , respectively, and the company's capacity utilization rate was 96.92 percent . It has declined for two consecutive years, with a decline of 20 percent . This may be the company's response.
Sa tSín, is é BYD an t-iomaitheoir is bagairtí i ré CATL. Ghabh CATL an t-iar-mhaoirseoir ceallraí seo amach i dtéarmaí lastais anuraidh. D'fhonn seasamh tosaigh na ceallraí a fháil ar ais, rinne BYD dhá choigeartú thábhachtacha: is é ceann amháin an bealach teicneolaíochta ceallraí a choigeartú. Ó 2017, tá BYD tosaithe ag baint úsáide as cadhnraí litiam ternary ina ghnó gluaisteán paisinéirí, agus úsáidfidh samhlacha leictreacha íon a tháirgtear i 2018 agus níos déanaí cadhnraí litiam tríúnacha freisin. Mar sin féin, tá cuideachtaí ceallraí ar nós CATL agus Guoxuan Hi-Tech tar éis tosú ag cur le cumas táirgthe na gcadhnraí trínártha. Is é an dara ceann ná an gnó ceallraí cumhachta a chasadh as agus é a oibriú go neamhspleách chun cuideachtaí feithiclí nua fuinnimh eile a sholáthar.
In the Ningde era, it has won nearly 30 percent of the domestic power battery market share - when it reaches twice BYD's, whether BYD can return to the first place will be one of the highlights of China's power batteries in the future.
