In-depth analysis of the obstacles to the development of my country's new energy vehicle industry
Ní airgead an rud is mó atá in easnamh ar an tionscal seo, ach teicneolaíocht aibí agus foireann oibríochta is féidir a thrádáil ar bhonn tráchtála.
At present, the industry's concerns about the development of the new energy vehicle industry, in addition to the market-oriented mass production contradiction caused by the promotion and application of the fuel vehicle's own technology and the huge initial cost investment, mainly focus on the relatively mature and commercialized mass production of lithium batteries as kinetic energy. Electric vehicle segment. What is restricting the development of the new energy vehicle industry? The author believes that the answer can be classified into three aspects: technology, resources, and policy.
Is sa cheallraí an eochair don bhac theicniúil
Cibé sa tSín nó ar fud an domhain, tá córas tacaíochta agus déantúsaíochta an-aibí teicniúil le haghaidh déantúsaíocht bhlaosc agus cóimeáil feithiclí, agus mar sin ní gá a bheith buartha faoi iomarca. Maidir le feithiclí nua fuinnimh, cé go bhfuil sé sách éasca nósanna tomhaltais a fhorbairt, más rud é nach féidir na fadhbanna a bhaineann le ham luchtaithe ró-fhada agus raon cúrsála ró-ghearr a réiteach, ansin i gcomparáid le feithiclí breosla traidisiúnta, tá an athbhreoslaithe tapa agus tá na stáisiúin daonra dlúth. Caillfidh sé a stádas mar is fearr leat nua sa mhargadh.
From the perspective of marketing, the "battery replacement station" can very well relieve the troubles of battery life and charging time, and can carry out professional maintenance of the battery. But three major problems lie ahead:
Gcéad dul síos, tá costas tógála an tsuímh féin an-mhór, agus ní mór cothabháil ghairmiúil a bheith ag an gceallraí. Cén cineál comhpháirtí caipitil is féidir leis an monaróir ceallraí comhoibriú leis chun é seo a bhaint amach?
Is é an dara ceann, nuair a cheannaíonn tomhaltóirí carr, tá an modúl ceallraí sa fheithicil comhionann le héarlais a íoc agus é a ligean ar cíos. Seans go dtógfaidh sé idir 3 agus 10 mbliana an chuid seo den infheistíocht a thabhairt ar ais. Cén cineál fiontair is féidir a leithéid de riosca a ghlacadh?
Is é an tríú ná nach bhfuil na caighdeáin ceallraí reatha aontaithe fós. Cosúil leis na fóin phóca is luaithe, ní féidir modúil chaighdeánacha agus comhéadain aontaithe a bhaint amach. Cén cineál cuideachtaí ar féidir leo a leithéid d’acmhainní dearcadh chun cinn agus RD a bheith acu chun caighdeáin a cheapadh agus a threorú?
Dá bhrí sin, is é an réiteach is réadúla i láthair na huaire fós ná an saol ceallraí a mhuirearú go tapa agus a mhéadú.
In the electric vehicle manufacturing chain, the "three power systems" (battery, motor, and electronic control) are very important, and the battery is the basis and decisive factor. For the lithium-ion battery with the largest commercial mass production nowadays, if you want to achieve fast charging, it is necessary to improve the original material, especially the positive electrode material, at a higher technical level, such as high nickel; if you want to achieve a significant improvement in battery life, An increase in energy density is required. It is worth noting that lithium nickel cobalt manganate has gradually become the mainstream in the past two years, and the energy density of lithium iron phosphate has made breakthroughs in the past two years, which are laying the foundation for the development of large-capacity and long-life battery technology.
Ag an am céanna, ní féidir tionchar diúltach na feidhmíochta slándála a mheas faoina luach. Mar shampla, tar éis pléascadh ar fhóin phóca Samsung, tá rialacháin níos déine glactha ag aerfoirt mhóra maidir le hiompar agus úsáid cadhnraí litiam-. Is í an fhadhb lárnach ná go bhfuil sé deacair an meascán is éifeachtaí de dhlús acmhainne agus feidhmíocht sábháilteachta na ceallraí féin a bhaint amach. Faoi láthair, níl aon cinn riachtanach. Tá sé deacair fiú graphene, a raibh hyped an-te, chun olltáirgeadh tráchtála ar scála mór a bhaint amach laistigh de thrí nó cúig bliana.
Is é cóbalt litiam croí na trioblóidí acmhainne
Le trí bliana anuas, tá ardú mór tagtha ar phraghas na salainn litiam bunúsacha. Ó dheireadh 2014 go 2017, dhreap sé ó níos lú ná 40,000 yuan/ton go 180,000 yuan/ton, agus ansin thit sé go dtí thart ar 150,000 yuan/ton ag deireadh na bliana. Tháinig ardú thart ar 4 go 5 huaire ar phraghas na gceallraí carbónáit litiam de ghrád.
Meanwhile, the cobalt situation is looking a little crazy. Statistics show that in the past 10 years, cobalt has experienced a 400 percent increase from 2006 to 2008, and it has also experienced a nearly 50 percent increase under quantitative easing from 2009 to the first half of 2010. Based on the strong demand for ternary materials for new energy vehicles, at the end of August 2017, the cobalt quotation published by the British "Metal Bulletin" (abbreviated as MB) reached 29 per pound, but there is still more than 65 percent of the room for the historical high. Since cobalt ore generally exists in the form of copper-cobalt or nickel-cobalt, the price relationship between cobalt and nickel-copper cannot be ignored.
An bhfuil praghsanna ag dul i dtreise mar gheall ar ghanntanas acmhainní? tá an freagra diúltach.
From the analysis of lithium resources, the world's current proven lithium reserves are 14Mt, and the current annual demand is 32.5kt. Lithium resources are mainly distributed in the range of 30-40 degrees north latitude and 20-30 degrees south latitude, such as the Andes Plateau of South America, the western United States and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau of China. Australia and Chile together control 75 percent of the world's lithium resources.
I mo thír, déantar 90 faoin gcéad d'acmhainní litiam a dháileadh san iarthar, agus is é an mianadóireacht reatha go príomha litiam méine (spodumene agus lepidolite) agus tá an meánghrád íseal (0.8 faoin gcéad -1.4 faoin gcéad, níos ísle ná 1.465 faoin gcéad). i dtíortha iasachta - 3. 55 faoin gcéad ), agus tá an t-ábhar maignéisiam i sáile sách ard (tá an cóimheas Mg/Li go ginearálta níos mó ná 40, agus níl ach 6.47 sa Salt Lake Atacama sa tSile), agus mar sin tá sé deacair a úsáid ar scála tionsclaíoch.
From the analysis of cobalt resources, the world's cobalt resources are rich and concentrated. According to the 2016 Mineral Commodity Summaries of the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the world's proven cobalt reserves in 2015 were 7.1 million tons, mainly in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Australia, Cuba, New Caledonia, Zambia and Russia, which accounts for about 80 percent of the world's total cobalt reserves.
In terms of production capacity, there are 10 mines producing cobalt resources in Congo (DRC), but 5 of them are held by Glencore of Switzerland, accounting for about 67 percent of the cobalt resources in producing mines in Congo (DRC). Freeport Corporation of the United States, Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation of Kazakhstan, Shalina Resources Corporation of the United Arab Emirates, China Minmetals Group and Jinchuan Group each hold one. The rest of the world's cobalt production capacity is not enough to shake Congo's dominance.
Le feabhas a chur ar úsáid scála tionsclaíoch agus dul chun cinn i dteicneolaíocht eastósctha, bunaithe ar an bprionsabal nach n-imíonn litiam, cóbalt agus eilimintí miotail eile, tá tionscal athchúrsála ceallraí litiam tagtha chun cinn go ciúin, tá athchúrsáil anois ina réaltacht, agus laghdófar an t-éileamh ar acmhainní nádúrtha dá réir sin. Tá an staid skyrocketing cosúil le stair na méine iarainn, agus tá sé mar thoradh ar thuairimíocht idirnáisiúnta rialaithe caipitil, rud nach féidir le fíor-staid na forbartha tionscail a léiriú go hiomlán.
Is é fóirdheontais an eochair do imní beartais
Ní mór tuiscint bhunúsach a shoiléiriú: is é croílár na bhfóirdheontas stáit le haghaidh feithiclí nua fuinnimh ná tacú le tionscal, buntáiste -an chéad ghluaiseora a chruthú, agus an margadh a leathnú go tapa, seachas fóirdheontais cosúil leis na hearnálacha talmhaíochta traidisiúnta. Is é an cuspóir ná cobhsaíocht bhunúsach an diosca a choinneáil. Mar sin, go luath amach anseo, is cinnte go gcuirfear an beartas fóirdheontais ar ceal.
The current orientation of policy subsidies generally focuses on two aspects: first, at the technical level, encouraging technological innovation, keeping pace with the world, and rewarding industry leaders; second, at the market level, breaking through the bottleneck of environmental protection, advocating green travel, and leveraging large and medium-sized cities , highlight the responsibility of a major country, and rely on the "Belt and Road" to seize overseas markets.
Go sonrach le táirgeadh, oibriú agus díolacháin táirgí na bhfiontar, is cosúil go dtiocfaidh fás mall nó fiú meath ar dhíolacháin reatha feithiclí leictreacha íon, a bhfuil caidreamh iontach aige le síneadh na tréimhse seachadta go dtí níos mó ná 6 mhí. Is í an fhadhb a léiríonn sé ná go bhfuil cumas táirgthe iarbhír cadhnraí cumhachta an-teoranta faoi láthair. Sa bhealach teicniúil atá ann cheana féin, cé go bhfuil cuideachtaí gaolmhara tar éis infheistíocht a dhéanamh freisin i monarchana ceallraí agus i dtionscadail bhunúsacha salainn litiam (den chuid is mó de charbónáit litiam agus hiodrocsaíd litiam), ach tá an t-am timthriall le haghaidh pleanáil, taispeáint, dearadh, formheas, tógáil, agus táirgeadh tionscadail thionsclaíocha, go háirithe an tionscal ceimiceach ina bhfuil salainn litiam bunúsacha suite, go ginearálta 1-2 bhliain, agus ba cheart go mbeadh an scaoileadh ar scála mór ar chumas táirgthe roimh 2020.
The related terminal car market demand has not eased for a moment, as can be seen in the number of new energy vehicles in cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen (for example, Beijing's number has been as far away as 2021). Some foreign media believe that if there is no capacity limit for batteries, the sales of pure electric vehicles can easily surpass that of plug-in hybrid vehicles. In recent years, the Chinese government has achieved the goal of vigorously supporting the development of new energy vehicles. The key to restricting the development of new energy vehicles is not government subsidies or market demand, but the formation of production capacity under technological breakthroughs. Public information shows that in November 2017, Volkswagen announced that it would invest more than 10 billion euros (11.8 billion U.S. dollars) to build 40 new energy vehicles with local Chinese partners. The company hopes to produce 1.5 million new energy vehicles in China by 2025. cars, most of which are electric vehicles. Toyota has also said it will produce electric vehicles in China by 2020. BMW's battery RD and production center was opened from Munich to Shenyang, and BMW also chose Ningde Times New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL) as a partner.
Is féidir a rá gurb é seo an ré is fearr le haghaidh feithiclí nua fuinnimh. Tá fórsaí nua ag teacht, agus tá cuid mhór caipitil páirteach i ngach gné de mhianaigh, salainn litiam bunúsacha, ábhair leictreoid, táirgeadh ceallraí agus déantúsaíocht feithiclí trí bhealaí éagsúla, agus tá sé tiomanta do dheiseanna a urghabháil. Tá na bigwigs traidisiúnta tar éis éirí go tobann freisin, ag obair go dian, ag iarraidh na bunghnéithe a chobhsú agus a leathnú go réimsí nua. I bhfocal, níl an rud is mó atá in easnamh ar an tionscal seo ná airgead, ach teicneolaíochtaí aibí is féidir a chur i bhfeidhm ar an margadh agus foireann oibríochta is féidir a thrádáil go tráchtála.
